Takes
Quibi had no bad case at all
Quibi raised $1.75 billion, projected more than 7 million subscribers in year one, and shut down after six months with about 500,000. The detail that matters is a word: in investor presentations, 20 million subscribers was the base case. When the base case is the good case, the bad case is missing by construction.
Quibi raised $1.75 billion and projected more than 7 million subscribers and $250 million in subscription revenue in its first year (TechCrunch). It shut down in October 2020, just over six months after launch, with about 500,000 subscribers (CNBC).
Quibi first-year subscribers, projected against actual
The numbers
| Group | m |
|---|---|
| Projected, first yearmore than 7 million | 7 m |
| At shutdownabout 500,000, six months in | 0.5 m |
The detail that matters is the vocabulary: in investor presentations, the founder described 20 million subscribers within five years as the "base case" (Fortune / Bloomberg). When the base case is the good case, the bad case is missing by construction, and every input on the forecast is optimistic at the same time, the exact error Lovallo and Kahneman documented in Delusions of Success. The bad-case forecast asks one question before any money moves: can the business live with the worst realistic outcome? Quibi's worst realistic outcome was never written down, so the question was never asked.
The twelve-employee version
The launch budgeted on the one outcome that would have justified it is Quibi at any scale: the new service, the second location, the campaign sized to the sales figure that makes it pay. Before money moves, write the worst realistic outcome down and ask whether the business survives it. Quibi's was never written down, so the question was never asked.
Frequently asked questions
- How many subscribers did Quibi actually get?
About 500,000 when it shut down in October 2020, just over six months after launch, against a projection of more than 7 million and $250 million in subscription revenue in the first year. It had raised $1.75 billion.
- What is the lesson beyond a failed app?
Vocabulary. When the base case in a plan is the good case, no bad case exists and every input is optimistic at the same time. The fix is procedural: run the forecast three times and sign against the worst realistic one.
